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The Bank of England decided to hold the base rate at 0.5% in March, but there is a growing expectation that the next MPC meeting in May will see a further increase, the first of two possible rises hinted at for 2018.
Unlike February, where every member voted to keep the base rate at its current level of 0.5%, two committee members voted in favour of a 0.25% rise at the March meeting, suggesting a possible rise is on the cards sooner rather than later. Both Ian McCafferty and Michael Saunders were in favour of raising the rate to 0.75%. As a result, markets expect and are prepared for an increase to take place at the next meeting in May. While inflationary pressures have eased slightly in recent weeks, inflation still remains above the central bank’s target. Even though inflation in February stood at 2.7%, the lowest figure since July 2017 and down on the 3% recorded the previous month, this is still higher than the Bank of England’s 2% target.
The wider economy is, however, performing better than expected, with wages rising at their fastest level for nearly three years and expectations of GDP growth being revised upwards for 2018. The 1.6% predicted last autumn has now been increased to 1.8%, in light of a stronger recent economic performance. Following the MPC announcement, the value of sterling against the dollar nudged up to $1.42 before stabilising at the $1.41 mark.
The two-year swap rate continued its recent rises in the wake of the decision. Trades are now taking place at around 1.11%, compared to 1% at the start of the month. The UK two-year swap rate of 1.11% is now at the highest level seen in almost three years. More significantly, the 3 month Libor has now reached 69bps being the highest level since summer 2012.
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